D.J. Moore Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 10, 2023 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 55.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 56.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

D.J. Moore has run a route on 95.3% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
Our trusted projections expect D.J. Moore to accrue 7.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile when it comes to WRs.
D.J. Moore has accrued a monstrous 91.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile among wideouts.
D.J. Moore's 78.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents a material improvement in his receiving talent over last season's 49.0 figure.
D.J. Moore's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 57.7% to 77.1%.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 47.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see only 125.5 total plays called: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Panthers, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 29.4 per game) this year.
The Chicago Bears offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.

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