D.J. Moore Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 6:01 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 56.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 53.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup QB Sam Darnold in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
D.J. Moore has run a route on 97.7% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to total 7.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.4 plays per game.
D.J. Moore has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (85.0 per game) than he did last season (100.0 per game).

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