D.J. Moore Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 6:01 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-103/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 52.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 55.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to start backup quarterback Sam Darnold this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
D.J. Moore has run a route on 97.6% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to total 7.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 5th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
D.J. Moore has put up quite a few less air yards this season (86.0 per game) than he did last season (100.0 per game).

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