D.J. Moore Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+219/-337).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -288 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -337.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to be much more involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line this week (29.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (22.2% in games he has played).
D.J. Moore's 72.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for wideouts.
The Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
D.J. Moore grades out in the 84th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.38 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
D.J. Moore has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (94.0 per game) than he did last year (100.0 per game).
D.J. Moore's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 59.7% to 54.4%.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has surrendered the 3rd-least passing touchdowns in the league to WRs: 0.50 per game this year.

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