D.J. Moore Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+181/-267).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +229 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +181.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game near the end zone this week (31.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (25.0% in games he has played).
D.J. Moore's 68.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 94th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 51.6 plays per game.
D.J. Moore has compiled far fewer air yards this season (71.0 per game) than he did last season (100.0 per game).
D.J. Moore's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 59.7% to 55.3%.
The Carolina Panthers O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

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