D.J. Moore Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+314/-571).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +326 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +314.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Panthers are a huge 13.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to be a more important option in his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (25.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (20.0% in games he has played).
The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.3 plays per game.
D.J. Moore has compiled far fewer air yards this year (66.0 per game) than he did last year (100.0 per game).
D.J. Moore's 61.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 71.9.
D.J. Moore's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 59.7% to 50.9%.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (58.6%) versus wide receivers this year (58.6%).

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