D.J. Moore Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:25 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+260/-360).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
D.J. Moore has been a big part of his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 23.0% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
D.J. Moore has accumulated a whopping 94.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among WRs.
D.J. Moore's 70.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 97th percentile for wide receivers.
The New Orleans Saints pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
D.J. Moore has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the league, completing a mere 57.0% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 23rd percentile among WRs
The New Orleans Saints defense has conceded the 6th-least passing touchdowns in the league to WRs: 0.79 per game since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.