D.J. Moore Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+317/-582).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +320 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +317.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 8th-most in football.
D.J. Moore has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 20.8% this year, which ranks in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
D.J. Moore's 69.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 93rd percentile for WRs.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Denver Broncos pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.22 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
D.J. Moore has totaled far fewer air yards this season (84.0 per game) than he did last season (100.0 per game).
D.J. Moore's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 59.7% to 54.1%.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.2%) to WRs this year (62.2%).

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