D.J. Moore Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 6:01 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+260/-430).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +309 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +260.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Panthers are an enormous 13-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to be a more important option in his offense's pass game near the end zone this week (26.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (21.7% in games he has played).
D.J. Moore's 72.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 96th percentile for wide receivers.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
D.J. Moore has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (89.0 per game) than he did last year (100.0 per game).
D.J. Moore's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 59.7% to 53.5%.

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