D.J. Chark Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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D.J. Chark

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers offensive scheme to tilt 7.2% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 62.4 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
The Tampa Bay cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Panthers to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, D.J. Chark has been relied on much less in his offense's passing attack.
In regards to pass protection (and the effect it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Panthers grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.
D.J. Chark is positioned as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league, hauling in a mere 56.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 11th percentile among wideouts

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