D.J. Chark Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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D.J. Chark

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 1, 2022 8:40 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-167/+127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +132 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Chark to accrue 7.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 78th percentile among wideouts.
D.J. Chark's 49.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 40.2.
The Seattle Seahawks safeties profile as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 6th-least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.4% pass rate.
D.J. Chark has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in just 37.1% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 2nd percentile among WRs
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a lowly 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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