D.J. Chark Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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D.J. Chark

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+108/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season, averaging 25.27 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
D.J. Chark's 44.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 82nd percentile for wide receivers.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (69.6%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (69.6%).
The Washington Commanders linebackers grade out as the worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 57.6% pass rate.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a mere 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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