D.J. Chark Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-111/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

D.J. Chark has run fewer routes this year (87.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (70.8%).
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has conceded the highest Completion% in the NFL (72%) to wideouts this year (72.0%).
The Carolina Panthers safeties profile as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Detroit Lions have risked going for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 11th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
D.J. Chark has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football, hauling in a mere 53.0% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile among wide receivers
The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.