D.J. Chark Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

reorder

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
D.J. Chark's 48.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 40.2.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
D.J. Chark has been among the worst possession receivers in the league, completing a mere 53.2% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 21st percentile among wide receivers
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.7%) vs. wide receivers this year (61.7%).
The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.