D.J. Chark Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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D.J. Chark

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Houston Texans · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Panthers offense to tilt 5.6% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
This game's line suggests a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to see 132.3 total plays called: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.
The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Carolina Panthers this year (a colossal 64.0 per game on average).
The Houston Texans defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers to pass on 56.9% of their chances: the 11th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
D.J. Chark has been a more integral piece of his team's offense this year, staying in the game for 84.0% of snaps compared to just 70.2% last year.
When talking about pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.
D.J. Chark's 52.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a noteworthy diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 58.2% rate.
D.J. Chark's pass-catching efficiency has declined this season, averaging a mere 7.27 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.73 rate last season.

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