D.J. Chark Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:01 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+107/-139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a massive 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Panthers to pass on 59.9% of their chances: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Panthers to be the 5th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.46 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

D.J. Chark has been a more integral piece of his team's offense this year, staying on the field for 84.3% of snaps compared to just 70.2% last year.
The Panthers offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
D.J. Chark's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 58.2% to 47.5%.
D.J. Chark's 7.4 adjusted yards per target this season signifies a a significant decline in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 8.7 rate.
The Lions pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 2.27 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in the NFL.