D.J. Chark Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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D.J. Chark

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 5:01 PM EST

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 5.9% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
The model projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Vikings defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in football.
When talking about air yards, D.J. Chark ranks in the towering 83rd percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, accumulating an astounding 75.0 per game.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Panthers as the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 59.1% pass rate.
The Panthers have run the 4th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
D.J. Chark's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 58.2% to 43.6%.
D.J. Chark's receiving efficiency has worsened this season, notching a measly 7.05 yards-per-target compared to a 8.73 rate last season.
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Minnesota's group of safeties has been fantastic since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-best in football.

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