D.J. Chark Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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D.J. Chark

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Carolina Panthers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:26 AM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Carolina Panthers offensive strategy to tilt 6.6% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
The 3rd-most plays in football have been run by the Carolina Panthers this year (a monstrous 62.1 per game on average).
This year, the weak Tennessee Titans defense has given up a colossal 183.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts: the 5th-worst in football.
This year, the anemic Titans pass defense has yielded a staggering 73.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the worst rate in the league.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Panthers to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the Titans defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
D.J. Chark has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (52.0 per game) than he did last year (74.0 per game).
D.J. Chark's 33.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 42.4.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year.

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