D.J. Chark Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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D.J. Chark

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 10, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Carolina Panthers offensive blueprint to skew 6.5% more towards the passing game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
This week's spread implies a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -3-point underdogs.
The 3rd-most plays in football have been run by the Panthers this year (a monstrous 63.8 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
This year, the weak Bears pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 70.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 7th-largest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Carolina Panthers to pass on 56.0% of their downs: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
The model projects the Panthers to call the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.

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