D.J. Chark Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 41.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 41.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
D.J. Chark has accounted for a whopping 26.3% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
D.J. Chark's 40.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 78th percentile for WRs.
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 120.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 122.0) versus WRs since the start of last season.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has shown strong efficiency against wideouts since the start of last season, conceding 7.47 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in the league.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.33 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the NFL.