D.J. Chark Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 1, 2022 8:40 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+210/-318).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -302 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -318.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Chark to be much more involved in his offense's passing offense near the goal line this week (19.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).
D.J. Chark has put up a colossal 94.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among WRs.
D.J. Chark's 49.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 40.2.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
D.J. Chark has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in just 37.1% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 2nd percentile among WRs
The Seattle Seahawks defense has surrendered the 2nd-least touchdowns through the air in the league to wideouts: 0.60 per game since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a lowly 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.