D.J. Chark Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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D.J. Chark

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+233/-367).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -366 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -367.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season, averaging 25.27 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
D.J. Chark has been a key part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 13.3% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.
D.J. Chark has received a whopping 29.3% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 89th percentile among wide receivers.
D.J. Chark's 44.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 82nd percentile for wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a mere 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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