D.J. Chark Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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D.J. Chark

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+292/-511).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +303 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +292.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Chark to be much more involved in his team's pass game near the goal line this week (14.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (8.6% in games he has played).
D.J. Chark has accumulated a whopping 90.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile among wideouts.
D.J. Chark's 48.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 40.2.
D.J. Chark ranks in the 84th percentile among WRs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.43 per game.

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
D.J. Chark has been among the worst possession receivers in the league, completing a mere 53.2% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 21st percentile among wide receivers
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.7%) vs. wide receivers this year (61.7%).
The New York Jets defense has given up the 7th-least passing TDs in the league to wide receivers: 0.77 per game this year.
The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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