D.J. Chark Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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D.J. Chark

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+307/-551).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +321 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +307.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
D.J. Chark has put up a whopping 93.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile among wide receivers.
D.J. Chark's 47.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 40.2.

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
D.J. Chark has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league, hauling in a measly 45.6% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 14th percentile among wide receivers
The Minnesota Vikings defense has surrendered the 9th-least touchdowns through the air in football to WRs: 0.75 per game this year.
The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks project as the 7th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Detroit Lions O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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