Diontae Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Diontae Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-113/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +112 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by the model to call 65.5 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most on the slate this week.
With an elite 92.1% Route Participation% (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Diontae Johnson has been as one of the WRs with the highest volume in football.
The leading projections forecast Diontae Johnson to accrue 8.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
With a fantastic 5.0 adjusted catches per game (86th percentile) since the start of last season, Diontae Johnson has been among the best WRs in the league in the league.

Favors Under

The 7th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (only 54.6 per game on average).
The Steelers O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Diontae Johnson has been one of the most unreliable receivers in the league, completing a mere 61.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 16th percentile among wide receivers
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (51.9%) to wide receivers this year (51.9%).

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