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Diontae Johnson

Diontae Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Diontae Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-254/+178).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -133 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -254.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Steelers will be rolling with backup QB Mason Rudolph this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.

In this week's game, Diontae Johnson is projected by the projection model to place in the 80th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.2 targets.

Diontae Johnson slots into the 96th percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) with a remarkable 70.0 mark this year.

Diontae Johnson is positioned as one of the leading pass-catching WRs this year, averaging a remarkable 4.2 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Steelers to call the 8th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The 6th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a mere 55.5 per game on average).

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

With a subpar 58.8% Adjusted Catch% (23rd percentile) this year, Diontae Johnson ranks as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football among wideouts.

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