Diontae Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The model projects Diontae Johnson to earn 7.8 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point growth in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Diontae Johnson has been more prominently incorporated in his team's air attack.
Diontae Johnson comes in as one of the leading pass-catching WRs this year, averaging a fantastic 4.5 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.
The Cardinals pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (70.7%) to wide receivers this year (70.7%).

Favors Under

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.
The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Steelers have called the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being projected in this game) usually cause decreased passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher run volume.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.