Diontae Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Diontae Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+126/-169).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -133 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -169.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Diontae Johnson has run a route on 96.8% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to garner 8.7 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Diontae Johnson's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.4% to 62.4%.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.4%) to WRs this year (62.4%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-fastest in football since the start of last season.

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