Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Diontae Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 11, 2024

Updated Nov 17, 2024 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-135/-101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers pass defense has shown bad efficiency against wide receivers this year, yielding 8.76 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in the NFL.
This year, the porous Steelers defense has given up the 6th-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wideouts: a whopping 4.57 YAC.
The Pittsburgh cornerbacks profile as the worst unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3 points.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 51.2% of their plays: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
At the present time, the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Baltimore Ravens.
While Diontae Johnson has accounted for 22.6% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much less involved in Baltimore's pass game in this contest at 8.5%.
After accumulating 86.0 air yards per game last year, Diontae Johnson has seen a big decrease this year, currently averaging 71.0 per game.

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