Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 16, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
The projections expect Diontae Johnson to total 8.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 88th percentile among WRs.
After accumulating 89.0 air yards per game last season, Diontae Johnson has shown good development this season, currently pacing 97.0 per game.
Diontae Johnson's 71.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 63.2.
With an exceptional 56.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (78th percentile) this year, Diontae Johnson stands as one of the leading wide receivers in the league in football.

Favors Under

Right now, the 10th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Steelers.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to pass too much against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (just 33.2 per game) this year.
The Steelers offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Diontae Johnson's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 61.4% to 58.0%.
This year, the stout Indianapolis Colts defense has yielded a feeble 140.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 7th-best in the NFL.