Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 60.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 65.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Steelers are predicted by our trusted projection set to call 65.9 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may decline.
Our trusted projections expect Diontae Johnson to accrue 9.1 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
Diontae Johnson has put up significantly more air yards this year (98.0 per game) than he did last year (89.0 per game).
Diontae Johnson's 80.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year illustrates a substantial improvement in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 56.0 mark.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (a measly 54.5 per game on average).
Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Green Bay Packers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 34.1 per game) this year.
Diontae Johnson has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (78.8% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (96.2%).
When it comes to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year.