Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Diontae Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 65.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 65.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to notch 11.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
Diontae Johnson has accrued a monstrous 96.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among WRs.
Diontae Johnson's 77.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 67.8.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
Diontae Johnson's receiving efficiency has worsened this year, accumulating a mere 6.10 yards-per-target compared to a 7.32 figure last year.
Diontae Johnson's talent in grinding out extra yardage have tailed off this season, accumulating just 2.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.16 rate last season.
The New York Jets pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.15 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the league.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

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