Diontae Johnson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Diontae Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+259/-428).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -422 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -428.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a heavy 11.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
Diontae Johnson has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 26.3% this year, which ranks in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

Diontae Johnson's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.4% to 60.9%.
Diontae Johnson grades out in the 1st percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a measly 0.00 per game.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has allowed the lowest Completion% in the NFL (55.5%) to WRs this year (55.5%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has given their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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