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Diontae Johnson

Diontae Johnson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Diontae Johnson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+255/-418).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -379 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -418.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Steelers are a giant 14-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to be a more important option in his team's passing attack near the end zone this week (22.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).

Diontae Johnson has put up significantly more air yards this season (101.0 per game) than he did last season (92.0 per game).

Diontae Johnson's 65.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 91st percentile for wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.

The weatherman calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.

Diontae Johnson grades out in the 1st percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (61.3%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (61.3%).

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