Diontae Johnson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+159/-224).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -216 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -224.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to be a more integral piece of his offense's air attack near the end zone this week (25.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Diontae Johnson has accrued a monstrous 96.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among WRs.
Diontae Johnson's 77.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 67.8.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized play action on just 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.