Diontae Johnson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 23, 2022 12:05 AM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+223/-346).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +226 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +223.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 63.9 plays per game.
Diontae Johnson has been an integral part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 23.4% since the start of last season, which places him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
Diontae Johnson has accumulated a whopping 92.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among wideouts.
Diontae Johnson's 68.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 96th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (64.6%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (64.6%).
The Cleveland Browns linebackers profile as the best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.