Diontae Johnson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Diontae Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+300/-400).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Diontae Johnson has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 27.0% this year, which puts him in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
Diontae Johnson's 60.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 89th percentile for wideouts.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has conceded the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (69.5%) versus WRs this year (69.5%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 123.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Diontae Johnson has put up quite a few less air yards this season (88.0 per game) than he did last season (93.0 per game).
Diontae Johnson's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.6% to 61.2%.
Diontae Johnson ranks in the 1st percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive ends grade out as the 9th-best group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.

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