Diontae Johnson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Diontae Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 29, 2022 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+274/-464).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +274 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +274.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Diontae Johnson has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 24.1% this year, which ranks him in the 87th percentile among wideouts.
Diontae Johnson has compiled a monstrous 89.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile among wide receivers.
The Indianapolis Colts defensive ends profile as the worst DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in football.
Diontae Johnson's 57.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 67.8.
Diontae Johnson's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.4% to 63.2%.
Diontae Johnson ranks in the 1st percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.

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