Diontae Johnson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Diontae Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Diontae Johnson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Diontae Johnson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-360).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.
Diontae Johnson has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 26.3% this year, which puts him in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
Diontae Johnson has compiled far more air yards this year (100.0 per game) than he did last year (92.0 per game).
Diontae Johnson's 63.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 90th percentile for WRs.
The New Orleans Saints defense has allowed the 9th-most passing touchdowns in the league to WRs: 0.89 per game this year.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Diontae Johnson's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.4% to 60.6%.
Diontae Johnson ranks in the 1st percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

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