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DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 22

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs

DeVonta Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+102/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -132.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 59.4 plays per game.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.

DeVonta Smith has run a route on 96.1% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.

The leading projections forecast DeVonta Smith to accumulate 7.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

With an excellent 4.3 adjusted catches per game (82nd percentile) this year, DeVonta Smith rates among the top wide receivers in the game in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 51.0% of their plays: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Eagles are anticipated by the model to call only 67.4 offensive plays in this contest: the fewest among all teams this week.

Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Chiefs defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.

The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

The Chiefs linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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