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DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles

DeVonta Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Eagles this year (a staggering 59.6 per game on average).

With an extraordinary 96.0% Route% (95th percentile) this year, DeVonta Smith ranks as one of the wide receivers with the most usage in the league.

The predictive model expects DeVonta Smith to accrue 7.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among WRs.

The Philadelphia O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

With a stellar 5.1 adjusted receptions per game (86th percentile) this year, DeVonta Smith rates as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Eagles, who are favored by 4 points.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Eagles to pass on 46.6% of their chances: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are expected by the model to run only 64.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-fewest on the slate this week.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Washington Commanders, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (just 30.6 per game) this year.

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