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DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers

DeVonta Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+108/-141).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +108.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) usually correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.

DeVonta Smith has run a route on 95.5% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.

In this game, DeVonta Smith is predicted by the model to position himself in the 75th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 6.7 targets.

In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.

With a fantastic 4.5 adjusted catches per game (80th percentile) this year, DeVonta Smith has been as one of the best WRs in the NFL in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a running game script.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 46.8% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects the Eagles offense to be the 5th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 28.99 seconds per snap.

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