DeVonta Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:21 AM EST

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -169 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles offensive approach to skew 1.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Brian Johnson now calling the plays.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In this week's contest, DeVonta Smith is anticipated by the projection model to find himself in the 81st percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.2 targets.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
DeVonta Smith grades out as one of the leading WRs in the NFL this year, averaging an outstanding 4.9 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 28.64 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
DeVonta Smith's 54.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 62.0.
The Cowboys pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (53%) vs. wideouts this year (53.0%).