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DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Indianapolis Colts vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
DeVonta Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-118/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • THE BLITZ projects DeVonta Smith to accrue 8.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
  • DeVonta Smith's receiving performance has gotten a boost this year, compiling 5.1 yards per game compared to just 3.4 last year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Eagles are a big 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in football.
  • DeVonta Smith's 54.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 62.8.
  • The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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