DeVonta Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-118/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects DeVonta Smith to accrue 8.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
DeVonta Smith's receiving performance has gotten a boost this year, compiling 5.1 yards per game compared to just 3.4 last year.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a big 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in football.
DeVonta Smith's 54.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 62.8.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.