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DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 21

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders

DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 46.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 59.6 plays per game.

DeVonta Smith has run a route on 96.0% of his offense's passing plays this year, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

DeVonta Smith's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 72.8% to 81.0%.

DeVonta Smith has been one of the most effective pass-catchers in the league, averaging a stellar 9.82 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 90th percentile among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 6-point advantage, the Eagles are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on running than their typical approach.

The projections expect the Eagles as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 45.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Commanders, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 25.9 per game) this year.

After averaging 87.0 air yards per game last year, DeVonta Smith has regressed heavily this year, now pacing 60.0 per game.

DeVonta Smith's 55.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents a noteworthy regression in his receiving prowess over last season's 66.0 rate.

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