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DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-114/-114).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 50.5 @ -114.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Eagles are projected by the model to run 65.9 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.4 plays per game.DeVonta Smith has run a route on 95.1% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.DeVonta Smith checks in as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL, hauling in a remarkable 73.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 84th percentile among WRs.The Panthers pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68%) versus wideouts this year (68.0%).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Eagles are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 42.9% of their plays: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.After totaling 87.0 air yards per game last season, DeVonta Smith has produced significantly less this season, now boasting 68.0 per game.DeVonta Smith's 54.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year shows a substantial reduction in his pass-catching talent over last year's 66.0 figure.This year, the fierce Carolina Panthers pass defense has surrendered the 10th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing wide receivers: a puny 3.9 YAC.
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