DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Miami Dolphins · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 2:41 AM UTC

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 56.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Eagles are expected by our trusted projection set to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 67.2 plays per game.
DeVonta Smith has run a route on 99.2% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
The predictive model expects DeVonta Smith to garner 7.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
DeVonta Smith has accrued significantly more air yards this year (98.0 per game) than he did last year (77.0 per game).

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Eagles are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
The leading projections forecast the Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) typically correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.
DeVonta Smith has notched significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (47.0) this season than he did last season (69.0).
DeVonta Smith's 64.1% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a an impressive reduction in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 71.8% figure.

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