DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 64.5 (-114/-114).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have played at the 5th-quickest tempo in football (in a neutral context) against the Eagles defense this year, averaging 26.21 seconds per play.
DeVonta Smith has run a route on 98.8% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
The projections expect DeVonta Smith to total 8.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among WRs.
After accumulating 77.0 air yards per game last year, DeVonta Smith has seen a big uptick this year, currently sitting at 95.0 per game.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite this week.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 55.9% of their downs: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Rams, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 33.5 per game) this year.
DeVonta Smith's 59.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season reflects a a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching talent over last season's 69.0 rate.
This year, the stout Rams defense has surrendered a paltry 53.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.

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