DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 59.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 61.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Eagles as the 7th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.63 seconds per play.
DeVonta Smith has run a route on 96.9% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
The leading projections forecast DeVonta Smith to total 7.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
When talking about air yards, DeVonta Smith grades out in the towering 86th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, accruing an astounding 79.0 per game.
The Eagles O-line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Eagles are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 4th-fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Washington's collection of CBs has been phenomenal since the start of last season, profiling as the 5th-best in the league.