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DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-150/+115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 55.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 57.5 @ -150.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecasted by the predictive model to run 66.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a staggering 61.3 per game on average).DeVonta Smith has run a route on 99.5% of his team's passing plays this year, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In this game, DeVonta Smith is forecasted by the predictive model to find himself in the 86th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.0 targets.After totaling 77.0 air yards per game last season, DeVonta Smith has been rising this season, now sitting at 85.0 per game.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Our trusted projections expect the Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 33.9 per game) this year.DeVonta Smith has posted substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (58.0) this year than he did last year (69.0).The Buffalo Bills pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.02 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Buffalo's group of CBs has been fantastic this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.
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